Benjamin R.

Extreme weather events result in massive disruptions, including discontinuities in disease control that threaten global efforts to reduce disease burdens. Events such as tropical cyclones are likely increasing in severity due to climate change yet remain neglected to date in climate-health studies, including for important pathogens such as malaria. Data on infection rates following these events and the consequences for malaria control programs remain rare as a result. Using data from Madagascar, we estimate high rates of infection in the wake of major tropical cyclones in 2022 and 2023 and show infection rebounds rapidly during gaps in standard interventions. Indicating the potential to buffer against such interruptions, newly available malaria vaccines have a longer duration of protection than the other standard malaria control tools. Evaluating this use, we quantify the reduction in malaria expected for scenarios where vaccination is deployed proactively in cyclone vulnerable areas. We conclude long-lasting interventions such as vaccination may be a key mitigation measure against climatic disruptions to disease control.

Jamie C.

Climate drives infectious disease dynamics through multiple mechanisms and understanding these relationships can help us predict and mitigate future disease outbreaks. My research investigates the conditions that allow diseases to emerge and spread by combining mathematical modelling with data from field and laboratory experiments to test hypotheses about disease spread at different spatial scales and across ecological systems. In this talk, I will discuss research on mosquito-borne diseases and coral diseases. Although seemingly very different, both disease systems are strongly influenced by climate, habitually under-detected, and currently have no widely available treatment. For mosquito-borne diseases, I will explore an open question: why are Zika outbreaks rare in Africa where the disease was first discovered and continues to circulate? This work investigated the role of climate and mosquito genetic variation in regulating transmission patterns across the continent, providing insight into future transmission hotspots and potential mitigation approaches. For several widespread coral diseases, I will show how temperature stress and poor water quality, in combination with other habitat features, differentially drives disease transmission across reefs in the Pacific Ocean, and how my colleagues and I have incorporated sub-seasonal to seasonal climate-driven disease forecasts into a new NOAA product. Finally, I will discuss important commonalities between mosquito-borne and coral disease systems that may more generally govern infectious disease dynamics.